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Increased planning security in uncertain times?

hpo economic forecasts for industry

Your forecast specialists

hpo forecasting contributes to a thriving workplace
by providing the best possible order intake forecasts for the industry.


The specialists at hpo forecasting create company-specific forecasts for incoming orders.


hpo forecasting maintains more than 100 industry forecast models for incoming orders worldwide.


The main focus is on capital goods (e.g. mechanical engineering) and durable consumer goods (e.g. automotive).


The forecasting period is 18 months. Rough long-term forecasts up to 5 years are possible as well.


hpo forecasting uses a mathematical model.


Key finding: The economy as a oscillating system.


Early forecasting of the last three major crises (dot-com bubble 2001, financial crisis 2008 and the current crisis 2019/2020).

Current topics

Development of inflation rates in the USA, the Eurozone, and Switzerland

How long will the coming crisis last?

hpo economic commentary of 24th November 2022
In Europe and the USA, a recession in 2023 can hardly be avoided.
read more here
Order intake mechanical engineering Germany nominal and real

Has the peak of demand in the industry already passed?

hpo economic commentary of 25th August 2022
The signals from the economy are very contradictory.
read more here
hpo economic commentary of 25th May 2022

Great volatility and uncertainity in a large number of markets

hpo economic commentary of 25th May 2022
The events of the last few months have been tumultuous.
read more here

Testimonials

Stefan Brupbacher

Stefan Brupbacher

Direktor, Swissmem

“Especially in times of high uncertainty, the qualitatively sound forecasts for our companies and industrial sectors are important indicators for our own work.”
Dr. Ing. Mathias Kammüller

Dr. Ing. Mathias Kammüller

Managing Partner, Trumpf

“Trumpf has been relying on the Peter Meier Forecasting Model for more than a decade, and we’re always surprised at how accurate the forecasts of our business performance are.”
Jean-Pascal Bobst

Jean-Pascal Bobst

Geschäftsführer, Bobst Group SA

“hpo forecasting has so far been able to accurately predict the major fluctuations in Bobst's order intake. The differentiated evaluation according to product groups is particularly helpful in this respect.”
Bernd Hilgarth

Bernd Hilgarth

Sales Director, CHIRON-WERKE GmbH & Co. KG

“As early as 2017, the forecast model of hpo forecasting for the German machine tools demand showed a sharp decline from 2019. Accordingly, we were able to adjust to this situation early on.”

Dr. Peter Friedrich

Dr. Peter Friedrich

Member of the Executive Board,  AKG Verwaltungsgesellschaft mbH

"Given the fact, that it takes time for production facilities to adjust to growth or downturn, I consider the forecast model by hpo forecasting to be a very valuable tool. "
Stephan Nell

Stephan Nell

CEO, United Grinding

"Peter Meier's forecast model identified the 2008 crisis at an early stage. The measures taken on the basis of this helped us to prepare ourselves in good time and to benefit fully from the subsequent upturn."

Industries

hpo forecasting maintains more than 100 industry forecast models for incoming orders in different markets like Europe, North America and Asia. The main focus is on capital goods (e.g. mechanical engineering) and manufacturers / dealers of durable consumer goods (e.g. automotive)


The starting point is always the industry forecast model in order to be able to do the company-specific forecasts. In case companies operating in different industries, we often work with mixed industry indicators to take account of the diversity of the customer industries or - if the data situation permits - we create separate forecast models for the individual sectors.


Examples of some industries for which hpo forecasting maintains order entry forecasts:

  • Agricultural and forestry machinery
  • Automotive
  • Building construction (and its suppliers)
  • Construction machinery
  • Conveyor and storage technology
  • Electronic components and printed circuit boards
  • Fluid power
  • Food and packaging machines
  • General mechanical engineering
  • Logistics
  • Machine Tools
  • Motor homes
  • Printing machinery
  • Semiconductors
  • Semitrailers
  • Steel and iron
  • Textile machinery
  • Tooling
  • Trucks

And many more. New forecasting models are being added on an ongoing basis.


Contact us to find out whether a qualitatively good forecast model is possible for your company. We are happy to offer you a free preliminary analysis of your incoming orders to clarify this on a fact-based foundation.

Forecasting Model

The hpo forecasts are based on the Peter Meier Forecasting Model, a scientifically founded and empirically proven model for predicting the order intake of industrial companies (capital goods and consumer durables).


The Peter Meier Forecasting Model was developed by Peter Meier, ETH plant engineer and former Managing Director of Starrag ag. He has been working intensively in economic research for twenty years and, among other things, correctly predicted the last three major crises (dot-com bubble in 2001, financial crisis in 2008 and the latest crisis 2019/2020) at an early stage. He continues to act as an advisor for hpo forecasting.


The basics of the mathematical forecasting approach are transparently described in Peter Meier's book "The Economy as an Oscillating System" (Hanser Verlag, 2019).


The book explains how economic forecasts are possible for individual industries and companies. In addition to many examples and graphics, the book also offers concrete practical tips as well as an insight into typical business cycle patterns of individual industries.

Why hpo forecasting

hpo forecasting predicts the order intake of industrial companies. The forecast model is based on the key insight that business activity behaves like an oscillating system as seen, for example, in mechanical engineering. This makes it possible to predict the general economic situation and the development of incoming orders in individual sectors and even of individual companies with astonishing precision.

Forecasting benefits

What are the advantages of our forecasts?


  • Early recognition of economic turning points
  • Specific industry focus
  • Company-specific forecasts of incoming orders
  • Scientifically sound and empirically tested mathematical forecast model
  • Quarterly forecast updates
further info

Value proposition

What are the benefits for your company?


  • Increased planning security
  • Independent second opinion on your company’s order estimates
  • Sector specific benchmark
  • Regular exchange
further info
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