hpo economic commentary, 1st quarter 2023

How robust is the economy in 2023?

“Not as bad as feared!” These were the words used by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde to describe the mood of the economic elite at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos. While in fall many economic institutes and banks revised their economic forecasts for 2023 downward, in some cases sharply, confidence has been growing again since December that the world is facing only a slight dip in growth. For example, in its World Economic Outlook at the end of January the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global GDP growth in the new year from 2.7% to 2.9%. This view is also shared by the financial markets, which got off to a flying start in the new year.

The reasons for the improved mood among the business elite in Davos are the following developments:

  • A surprisingly robust real economy with unemployment rates remaining very low
  • Falling infation rates in the United States and Europe
  • China’s surprise end to strict Corona measures at the end of 2022

Josua Burkart, Benjamin Boksberger